Considering the future of mobility

Participants

John Andoh Mass Transit Administrator & General Manager at the County of Hawai’i Mass Transit Agency (Hele-On)	Georgia Corr Public Policy Manager – UK and Ireland at Lime	Sara Davidson Senior Technical Lead – Emerging Technologies & Innovative Mobility at the Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITS America)	Kammy Horne Senior Vice President – Development at VIA Metropolitan Transit
Michael Kodransky U.S. Director at the Institute for Transportation & Development Policy (ITDP)	Steve Longman Mobility-as-a-Service Project Manager at Solent Transport	Marla Westervelt Previously the Vice President of Policy at the Coalition for Reimagined Mobility (ReMo)	Georgia Yexley General Manager – UK & Ireland at TIER Mobility

What do you think will be the most significant trend to impact the mobility industry in the next five years?

Andoh: Public transit systems would become mobility agencies and find creative ways to think beyond the bus. Mobility now includes buses, demand-response (dial-a-ride, microtransit, flex routes), streetcars, ferries, scooters, bicycles, car-sharing, ride-sharing, taxis, transportation network companies and rail, as examples. Diversification of the movement of people will become the norm of public transit agencies in order to create equitable opportunities to connect to education, shopping, employment, healthcare, recreation and other quality of life opportunities. Another form of mobility is making transportation opportunities free to eliminate a barrier to accessing quality of life opportunities.

Corr: At a time when we face a global climate emergency, many cities are ramping up their efforts to adopt policies to encourage more people to break up with cars and turn to shared, sustainable and carbon-free transport options, like e-bikes and e-scooters.

To encourage more people to adopt a car-free lifestyle, investment in active travel infrastructure is essential to pave the way for cycling and scooting to become the natural transport choice for short journeys – particularly as we know that the key barrier across all groups relates to motor traffic safety concerns.

We’ve already seen local authorities and cities nationally introduce segregated cycle lanes, junction improvements and Low Traffic Neighbourhoods that create healthier, safer streets where all members of society can feel empowered to travel sustainably.

However, we also need to recognise that infrastructure alone won’t break our addiction to cars. With unprecedented levels of toxic air pollution in our cities, we need more policies that seek to discourage the use of private cars for short journeys, too, like the introduction and expansion of Clean Air Zones. I think that we’re only going to see more of these policies in the coming years, and they have significant potential to encourage the widespread adoption of micro-mobility services.

Ultimately, cars do not have an inherent right to our streets. Every city and town can encourage the adoption of micro-mobility by putting people and our planet ahead of cars.

Davidson: Over the past decade, there has been a wave of innovation in the intelligent transportation space – from advancements in vehicle automation technology, to the deployment of new on‑demand mobility modes (such as electric scooter, bike-share, ride-share and microtransit services), to developments related to smart infrastructure, vehicle electrification, transportation connectivity and emerging technologies. Looking forward, our ability to leverage real-time information and transformational technologies to improve transportation service and inform decision‑making will continue to grow. Over the next five years, one of the most significant trends to impact the mobility industry will be the expansion of opportunities to improve transportation accessibility – leveraging the growth of (and investment in) innovative mobility technologies to advance mobility for all.

Horne: With public transportation in mind, and from the standpoint as a U.S. practitioner, I believe that one of the most significant trends to impact the mobility industry in the next five years is a shift in the use of the personal automobile to more reliance on shared and public transportation, especially where reliable and frequent transit networks exist. I believe that, as the impacts of COVID-19 on travel and business lessen and more traffic returns to the roadways, the congestion that has always been projected in areas of high population growth will be realised and will make public transportation an even more attractive option.

Kodransky: There will be an epic shift to electrified mobility, such as e-buses and micro-mobility offerings, including a rise in e-bike use, and a shift to electric light and heavy trucks. This great energy transition has implications for surface mobility, from transit service operations, sitting and maintenance of charging infrastructure, curbside use, street design and energy grid upgrades and management. In the next few years, the urgency of getting below the 1.5^oC global climate threshold and to meet the Paris Climate Agreement targets is leading to a massive effort in the transport sector to pivot away from fossil-fuel based energy consumption to renewable energy.

The COVID-19 pandemic focused the world’s attention on how communities exposed to air pollution are especially vulnerable to getting sick from airborne diseases, especially those living or working near corridors with high concentrations of toxic exhaust. Pollutants from tailpipe emissions are a menace to the health and well-being of everyone, but especially to marginalised communities who are burned with environmental injustice.

Electrification is a great opportunity to adapt our existing mobility systems to address the climate-equity-public health crisis. Yet, vehicle technology alone will not get us below the dreaded global climate threshold danger line. Mitigation measures are also needed. Compact, mixed-use development policies around multimodal, clean transport systems can be a blueprint for thriving climate resilient communities, supporting less energy intensive trips for people, as well as more efficient goods delivery. That will be the trend within this decade.

Longman: Due to the nature of the work that I’m currently delivering, I would say that breaking the link between car ownership and planning personal trips will have a significant impact in the coming years. When I first passed my driving test at 17, I’d made a substantial investment to get myself the freedom that a young person craves that’s provided by owning a car. However, I remember thinking, “I’ve spent so much time and money to get here, I’m going to have to make every journey by car to make this worth it”. I felt that I had to drive the two-mile distance to my weekend job, that I had to drive to town to meet friends and pay for expensive parking, or constantly having to move my car to avoid parking restrictions when staying at university because I was scared to not have access to a car (in a city with great public transport links, no less!). I think that I probably used my car two to three times during the first year at university – at a cost in hundreds of pounds per trip. Hopefully, with the increasing trend of subscription and on-demand access to a variety of modes – as well as enhanced travel planning platforms – young people of today won’t have the barrier of making a large upfront investment to get their personal freedom. They will have the power to plan and access mobility on a trip-by-trip basis and select the most suitable mode(s) at that point in time, and not be chained to using a car for every journey to justify ownership.

Westervelt: In the wake of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, public transport systems around the world are in crisis. Pandemic related stay-at-home orders and the continued reduction in trips on public transport is leaving major global cities, such as New York City, with budget deficits due to reduced farebox revenue. As cities and transport agencies grapple with insufficient funding, I anticipate a trend towards public agencies seeking to leverage private business to consumer mobility providers to serve the needs of the public interest.

As public agencies seek to direct private companies towards operating in the public interest, we will see an increased need to build regulatory and funding structures that align public and private interests. Policymakers have the opportunity to harness the value of private services through thoughtfully designed regulation, or risk that potential of regulating private operators out of existence. If  policymakers grasp the opportunity, the mobility industry will see positive change — and faster than ever before — in the next five years.

Yexley: The very nature of mobility is going through a period of pronounced change. Five years ago, the first dockless shared mobility service launched in the UK, and look at how micro-mobility has changed since then! The types of vehicles available has expanded and evolved, but the key trend is the move towards smaller, electrically-powered or assisted vehicles in urban areas.

With this broad-scale shift towards e-bikes and e-scooters for personal and for business mobility, there swiftly follows an increase in demand and need for high quality infrastructure dedicated to these vehicle types. This means segregated cycle lanes, parking solutions for shared and privately owned e-bikes and e-scooters, and other changes to our urban landscape.

Looking more specifically at shared micro-mobility, the technology underpinning our service is going to continue to mature. TIER Mobility is running a pilot of our first in-house developed ‘brain’ for our e-scooters in London at the moment, which features more powerful internals and better connectivity. We are developing new use-cases based on the improved capabilities of this brain and, over the next five years, we expect to see more advanced safety systems and an improved user experience.

We also expect to see a better connected ‘mesh’ of different modes of transport, where users will easily be able to start and/or end a journey using micro-mobility, linking up public transport, taxis or shared vehicle services. TIER e-scooters and e-bikes are already available through mobility apps like FREE NOW and Moovit, and more of these partnerships will let consumers access a range of different modalities through a few core apps and touchpoints, making it easier for people to choose the best way to get around on a daily or even minute-by-minute basis. We know that micro-mobility helps to extend the reach of public transport services, and working together provides a more robust service than individually.

If there is just one ‘trend’ that makes the most significant change, I am hopeful that it will be the strengthening of collaboration across the private and public sector; to be joint value creators for public good.

What do you think the future of mobility looks like?

Andoh: That, with the diversification of mobility within public transit agencies, traditional modes (i.e. buses, trains, ferries) in some cases are declining in usage and non‑traditional modes (i.e. Lyft/Uber, vanpools, carpools, bike-sharing, scooter, car-sharing, Mobility-as-a-Service apps) are increasing as people want faster, healthier and independent ways to get around that does not take a whole lot of space, effort or time. In Hawai’i County, we have started to transition. This includes expanding the network of fixed routes island-wide, including circulator services in the urban areas of the island, express routes and more evening and Sunday services. The demand-response network was expanded, as well, including the launch of paratransit services in the southern portion of the island, expanding the rural demand-response services, restructuring the shared ride taxi programme to include Lyft and Uber, and starting a new vanpool programme for commuters that are travelling between east and west Hawai’i. A recent element to ensure that the transit system is being an economic driver and to connect people to employment, education and quality of life, the Hawai’i County Council authorised making Hele-On free for at least two years. The elimination of the fare has helped those that make lower incomes to have the ability to redirect their fare revenues to other life needs.

Corr: Building sustainable, people-first cities and towns starts with providing a range of alternatives to cars – each new area that embraces micro-mobility is helping to expand a growing network of people who rely on shared, sustainable transport services that help to tackle air pollution, climate change and congestion.

We’ve already started to see pioneers like Paris and London take away space from cars for more efficient transport options.

Cars not only sit idle for over 95 per cent of the time, but carry very few people, with England’s average car occupancy in 2020 being just 1.5 people¹. The future of mobility is one where more cities take action to repurpose space from cars towards more efficient, green transport options, such as public transport and micro‑mobility.

Davidson: Various factors, such as those listed below, present significant potential to expand and transform the accessibility of our transportation ecosystem over the coming years:

• Automated vehicles (AVs): Advancements in AVs, and associated opportunities to reimagine the design of driverless vehicles to incorporate more universal design elements, can potentially provide additional transportation accessibility and independence to a wide range of travellers, including individuals with disabilities
• Mobility-on-Demand (MOD): Evolving shared-use and on-demand-related deployments and partnerships can increase local mobility options, support improved first-/last-mile mobility and expand the reach of existing mobility networks – for instance, MOD can help to extend transit service hours and service area to better connect with a broader range of travellers (such as late-night workers or individuals in underserved areas or transit deserts). MOD services can serve as a dynamic tool to advance need-responsive, timely access to transportation
• Mobility wallets: The development and expansion of systems for integrated, account-based trip payment can potentially help to connect qualified travellers with ‘best fares’ or subsidised rides, whilst also supporting more seamless trip chaining and multimodal travel for all
• Assistive technologies: Emerging tools and technologies can be leveraged to further improve navigation and tailored trip planning/decision-making to advance mobility for travellers with a diverse range of needs across the complete trip
• Complete Streets: Changes associated with how street and curb space is delegated and designed can help to improve safety for pedestrians and multimodal travellers, making these modes safer and more accessible.

If these changes and innovations are deployed thoughtfully, the future of mobility will present travellers with increased transportation freedom and flexibility, supported by greater access to safe, potentially more sustainable modes, travel information, tools and spaces that promote accessible multimodal travel.

Horne: I believe that future mobility falls into three major categories that will make it more seamless, safer and shared. Seamless mobility includes the use of technology for trip planning to include public transportation, car/bike-share options and pedestrian connections. Safer mobility includes additional use of automated technology to support personal and public transportation options. Shared mobility includes public transportation via fixed routes and micro-mobility options, as well as shared use through Transportation Network Companies, high‑occupancy vehicle roadways and other changes in transportation infrastructure and technology to support moving more people in fewer vehicles.

The future of mobility is trending toward enhancing the long-time benefits and innovation of public transportation, while modernising infrastructure and modes to deliver an improved public service that’s flexible enough to fit diverse needs and preferences while, at its core, designed to move more people, faster and farther.

Kodransky: The era of building mega roads, constructing multi-level highways through existing communities and expanding vehicle lanes endlessly into new territories to make room for sprawling human settlement is likely over. Many regions globally are reaching that conclusion. If the mobility systems of the past prioritised speed for private vehicles to reach far-flung districts, the future will be more people-centred, human-scale and with safer streets, smaller delivery vehicles, less private vehicles and more transit access points. The shift away from limited access roads will not happen overnight, but there are already glimmers pointing to how the future might look.

Within the last 20 years, the Cheonggyecheon highway was torn down in Seoul, South Korea – demonstrating new thinking about mobility to the world. Instead of maintaining an elevated highway with endless traffic congestion and smog, Seoul transformed the corridor into a delightful naturalistic public space, uncovering a buried waterway and connecting adjacent neighbourhoods with improved walking paths and bus links. In the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, and to provide urban dwellers with some relief from sheltering-in-place, cities began to pilot open streets for restaurant use, public gathering and to give priority to pedestrians, bike users and bus riders. Campaigns such as NYC25x25 and LA25x25 in the top two most populous U.S. regions call for reclaiming 25 per cent of urban road space, usually from on-street parking, to make way for many other uses by 2025.

The future will include less limited access roads, better management of existing surface mobility assets and more universal basic mobility programmes that connect people through affordable digital mobility wallets to opportunities and destinations. There will be more ways to get around using emerging transport modes with real-time information, connecting people and goods. Most importantly, there is growing awareness about how transport system designers do not always reflect the needs of all system users, especially the disabled, women, children, elderly and others. The future will bring greater mobility access to all users through more inclusive design approaches.

Longman: I think that we should aim for mobility to become unimportant in the future. Now, don’t get me wrong – mobility, society and our quality of life are all closely intertwined, meaning that transport plays a very large role in our day-to-day happiness. That’s important. But, the provision of transport is often a political issue, it’s complicated to plan and provide for, makes a significant contribution to climate change and it doesn’t always meet the needs of the people that use it.

How and why we travel is deep into large scale change through new modes, new business models, changing behaviours and beliefs, as well as developing technology. With all of this potential opportunity (and challenges) ahead, it is essential to adopt a human-centric focus to the decisions and planning of our transport system to meet society’s needs.

There’s some impressive mobility-related technology out there, but we must take an impartial view on whether or not that technology meets the objectives of society – rather than trying to find a problem to fit the shiny new technology-based solution. Similarly, with new business models, the solution needs to work not just for the operator, but also the myriad of different users and their needs. The days of focusing a model on the traditional commute is behind us, and this needs to be mirrored in our future transport system.

So, when I say that mobility should be unimportant in the future, I mean that it shouldn’t be a barrier to our happiness. We have an enormous opportunity to evolve our transport system and make it work better for everyone. Identifying and addressing the pain points from a holistic user perspective will help to create an environment where transport is less of an obstruction to opportunities and is inconspicuous. I don’t want using transport to stress me out, to prevent me from attending an event or opportunity, or for planning how I’m going to get somewhere to be complicated. Basically, as a user, I don’t want to have to think about using transport.

Westervelt: The future of mobility isn’t a foregone conclusion. Policymakers are in the driver’s seat and have the opportunity to reimagine regulatory and funding structures to align public and private interests. Alternatively, inertia will drive the future of mobility towards a status quo of reduced transport service and underinvestment in infrastructure.

Policymakers have the opportunity to define regulatory and funding structures that prioritise people and the planet. One of the ways to do that is to ensure that everyone has at least two transport options to get where they want to go, when they need to get there. Here at the Coalition for Reimagined Mobility, we believe that transportation is a public good, regardless of whether it comes from public or private sectors. At the end of the day, it’s up to policymakers to have these conversations and work together to better serve the public’s interest.

Yexley: The future is going to look very different, especially in countries like the UK which still currently has a very car-centric urban infrastructure. The pressures on improving air quality, making mobility more sustainable and tackling traffic congestion are not going to abate if a fairly radical change to the urban landscape doesn’t happen.

Urban populations are projected to only increase, and the way that we live and work has just undergone a dramatic and sudden shift. With the traditional financial engine of public transport – commuting – being reduced, while journeys in the local areas around where people live has increased, bringing with it increased car traffic, and with online shopping deeply entrenched in people’s lifestyles, there are more and more delivery vehicles on our streets than ever before.

We can’t widen the streets in our cities, especially in the centre of cities like London or Paris, which are hundreds of years old. And, even if we could widen the streets, this would only induce demand and make the issue worse. Something has to give and, for the sake of our health and environment, it must be the reallocation of space away from the car. The reason why the micro-mobility industry is so exciting is how much of an impact it has made whilst still being very young. Legislation is playing catch-up, and we are really only seeing the beginning of what light electric vehicles like e-scooters or pedal‑assist bicycles and cargo-bikes can do.

To get people out of their cars, there needs to be an easy-to-access alternative, and this is where shared mobility and better integration of services steps in. In the future, the flexibility and ease of use of shared services will trump the benefits of owning and using a private car. The future is looking distinctly bicycle and e-scooter shaped!

References

1. Taken from DfT Vehicle Occupancy data – https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1017064/nts0905.ods