A decade of transition

As we stand in the first year of a new decade, it is helpful to look forward to anticipate how our world will be in 10 years time. It seems clear that the challenge of climate change will be more immediate. The end of this decade will mark the half way point in the 60 year journey to a low carbon economy which started in 1990 to a distant point of 2050. This milestone means the time to tip the balance between high carbon and low carbon is fast approaching, making this a decade of transition.

Over the last decade, transport has been viewed as the source of emissions that appears to be relentlessly increasing. In the UK, between 1990 and 2007, emissions from surface transport increased by 10.6%. In 2008, there was a shift downwards, from 2007 to 2008 the reduction in emissions from road transport (which make up 98% of surface transport emissions) was 3.4% and there was a further 3.9% decline in 2009. This was due to several factors, including the purchase of more efficient vehicles, falling mileage due to the recession and increased penetration of biofuels1.

Reducing emissions in an economic recovery

The key issue today is how to maintain the trend of reduced emissions from surface transport while supporting an economic recovery. This was the starting point for the drafting of the ITS (UK) strategy on climate change and carbon reduction that was published in May 20102. The strategy was produced by the ITS (UK) Carbon Working Group which was formed in September 2009 under the Chairmanship of Keith McCabe of Atkins. Following the publication of the strategy, the Group organised a workshop in Newcastle on 1 July 20103 to discuss the key themes of the strategy.

This article draws out some of the key issues and themes from that workshop.

Electrification of transport

A key theme in reducing emissions from transport is to move from a largely fossil fuel based mode of propulsion to alternative fuels (biodiesels, hydrogen and electricity). The workshop emphasised the electrification of the vehicle fleet and the practicalities of moving from a garage forecourt fuelled fleet to one that is largely powered by mains electricity. This transformation has been underway in rail and trams/trolley buses for a long period, with power being delivered to the vehicle as it moves along.

In the case of personalised transport, the main mode proposed in the short-term is to charge the vehicle while stationary (the only exception being work on induced charging, currently in the early stages of development). Issues of standardisation of charging points and middle to long distance journey planning were seen as key issues to be addressed in the short and medium-term. The work on payment for charging a vehicle and booking of charging points was already underway; the issues seemed to centre on compatibility and interoperability. One consequence of the workshop has been that an electric vehicle task force has been set up by ITS (UK) to address some of these issues.

There is another important element of energy use impacting on the transport industry – the energy used in the manufacture, operation and disposal of the electronic and electrical equipment. A key issue was to have some common understanding of the relationship between the operational and embedded energy/carbon in ITS equipment and the impact it has in the reduction of energy/emissions. The view was taken at the workshop that initiatives like Managed Motorways (with variable speed limits and dynamic use of the breakdown lane) had a positive impact on emissions and may be used as a model for assessing whole life emissions. A need was identified to produce a range of examples to start to form a consistent approach to calculations and the use of tools. In the short-term, there is real pressure to ensure energy use is minimised, particularly in periods when equipment is not being used for its primary purpose.

Eco driving

Vehicle efficiency is coming under greater scrutiny. Vehicle manufacturers are investing in more efficient engines, hybrids, alternative fuelled engines and electric vehicles to reduce the CO2 emissions per km. It is also becoming clear that the style of driving and the driving environment have a significant impact on the level of emissions.

The Foot-LITE project4 was presented at the workshop. It aims to assist drivers with information on economical driving styles and uses data from vehicles to produce real-time indications of performance as well as offline reports for ongoing monitoring. The aim is to produce a smoother driving style with lower emissions per km and lower fuel consumption.

The implementation of speed limits that adjust to traffic conditions on motorways and major roads can also have a significant impact in smoothing flows and reducing emissions.

To travel or not to travel?

The reasons for travel and the modes by which people travel were seen as important issues in determining the overall emission levels from transport. ITS can perform a role in providing seamless travel between different modes of transport particularly when one or more modes are disrupted. The ability to personalise the information for individual needs represents a potential step forward in making public transport, walking and cycling more attractive modes of travel if more certainty of outcome can be provided in real-time. ITS technology can also assist in the seamless transition from one mode to another with information on car parking at interchanges and the use of smart cards for through ticketing between different modes of transport.

The use of ICT can also reduce the need to travel with teleconferencing, video conferencing and other forms of data communication. It was noted that new forms of communication often change the form of demand for travel but don’t always reduce the overall level of demand.

Talking a new language

The world of travel is a data rich environment. On a daily basis, large quantities of data are collected every day on the movements of people, vehicles and goods. If the data can be merged while protecting the privacy of the traveller, there is the potential to greatly improve the predictability of travel outcomes. At present, it is difficult to predict more than 30 minutes ahead of what might happen with travel on a particular day. On the face of it, congestion patterns seem at best, unpredictable. The use of data analytics could start to provide a more intelligent way of planning and managing travel on a city, state or national basis. The use of tools to convert the vast quantities of travel data into estimates of the greenhouse gas emissions that result from travel in real-time or near real-time, potentially assist in creating the outcome of a new language that relates travel behaviour and local/strategic travel decisions. This language and information can then be used to provide a range of priorities for transport operators and network operators depending on different circumstances.

Adapting to climate change

It seems almost certain that there will be some climate change over the next 40 years. This change could result in an increase in severe weather events that cause disruption to the transportation network. The forecasts for changes in general weather patterns and temperatures are improving and a greater degree of certainty is being given to some forms of climate change. In preparing for change there is a need to consider the resilience of transport infrastructure to severe weather events. A key issue was raised at the workshop that the information systems and sources used for managing travel on a day-to-day basis needs to be operational when there is disruption. The systems can be used to advise people not to travel or to reroute in the case of disruption. ITS has a key role to play in this area.

Green economic growth

The recession and cuts in public expenditure was one of the main issues when it came to planning for the future. During the next decade, there will need to be a shift from a high carbon to a low carbon transportation network. The levels of investment required in the transport and energy supply networks in the medium and long-term are large. In the short-term, the question being posed seems to be how to get more out of what already exists. It was clear from the workshop that some of the key elements of the required technology already exists, but there was a need for a new language and a new approach to the use of ITS.

As we approach the halfway point in the 60 year journey to a low carbon economy, it seems to be a good time to draw together the experience of what exists and combine it with new thinking to make vital steps in the direction of a green recovery.

References

1. Meeting Carbon Budgets – ensuring a low carbon recovery – UK Committee on climate change June 2010. http://www.theccc.org.uk/reports/ 2nd-progress-report

2. ITS (UK) strategy to support carbon reduction and address climate change issues http://www.its-uk.org.uk/news/ story.aspx?id=196

3. Details of the workshop can be found at https://ktn.innovateuk.org/web/its-ukcarbon- working-group/articles/-/blogs/ its-america-virtually-joins-cwg-eventon- 1st-july-in-newcastle? ns_33_redirect=%2Fweb%2Fits-ukcarbon- working-group%2Farticles

4. Foot-LITE – details of the Foot-LITE project can be found at http://www.foot-lite.net/

About the Author

Keith McCabe

Keith is a Principal Consultant based in the Manchester office, specialising in greenhouse gas emissions reduction and the development of Intelligent Transport Systems. He is the Sustainability and Carbon Champion for Atkins ITS and is responsible for Sustainability and Carbon Community of practice. Keith currently Chairs the ITS UK Carbon Working Group.